I attempted to change an established count this morning to take into account the rally beyond last week's peak in futures and cash. According to current Elliott wave there is no such thing as an "irregular top", as used by Elliott himself. However, I've seen a number of 5-wave declines that began with an advance to a new high. This can be accounted for in one of two ways:
First, the current theory is implemented to somehow count the rally wave to new highs as part of the impulse rally leading up to it. This, even though the wave may clearly take the form of a 3-wave. We have such an instance in cash and futures. If I were to expect only a 3-wave decline then I would simply label it an expanded flat and let a 5-wave decline complete the c wave of the expanded flat. However, if the upcoming decline is impulsive then expanded flat has nothing to do with the count and there is no provision for a pair of 3-waves down then up to kick off an impulse downward.
The second way to account for the phenomenon is to simply ignore the pair of abc's and start the labelling with the first 5 down. This is what Elliott did and what current theorists abhore.
So, tomorrow evening I will probably find today's high marked as part of the impulse starting on the 31st.
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Hello could it be an expanding diagonal which started on Sept 8? Today high was 3rd wave, we just had a 4th wave 20mins ago and we have one little push up? Thanks
ReplyDeleteLooks to me like the move up since 14:00 eastern time has moved into the price territory of wave 1 down. Would this not violate your count?
ReplyDeleteAlso, do you have your stop on your SDS position at an SPX price above today's high?
My stop is DJI 10,444. An SPX equivalent would be 1145.6
ReplyDeleteThis is not shaping up as a 5 down.