Thursday, April 21, 2011

4/21 pre-open

Back and rested.  Since the quake I1 has lead the stock market by a decreasing interval.  I1 does not invert but is winding down a lead (the stock market lagging).  The quake occurred March 11, after I1 had bottomed on the 6th.  The stock market bottomed 6 days later and rallied to a peak which was 5 days after the I1 peak.  It then hit a trough 3 days after the I1 trough, but the S&P credit outlook announcement knocked the market down to a lower low 2 days later.  Now we should have a 2 day lead, so with the 18th-19th I1 peak the 21st should be the stock market peak, which occurred overnight.
I entered core positions and am now waiting on short-term M/As to increase positions.  First DJ 10-minute M/A - 37 points has a flash point of 12,410 June futures.
Nasdaq futures should trigger with their 15-minute M/A - 7.5 points.  This has a current flash point of 2370.
I'm using gold's 10-minute M/A -4.3 points as a trigger for gold and silver shorts.  Current flash point: 1498.70.
The SPX cycle composite is complete:


  1. Hi Steve - I've recently been following your blog and have a few questions.

    Based on your I1 analysis, do you believe that SP 1344 cash won't be exceeded for many many years and that a major down leg has started ?

    And do you believe the same is true for gold and silver ?

    If so, it would seem to be a safe time to short and hold.


  2. Cynthia, I rarely take core positions. I took stock shorts knowing that I1 may lead by a couple of days. If you know me, I don't normally take positions and allow the market to run past for 2 days. So, yes, this is a good time to put in some 3-month shorts. Precious metals, silver runs to $50. I am looking for a top 4/28 on the PM1 sentiment gauge.