Friday, April 29, 2011

4/29 2:05

Do you have your long exit strategy in place?
Silver fell $5 an ounce in a single day off the 49.80 high.  What if the same were to happen in the stock market?  Silver hit it's high overnight.  It was down $3 before the stock market opened.  It was down $1.60 before ARCA opened and allowed ETFs to trade.
I think the stock market could be in for a similar environment, where the first steep step down traps the ETFs overnight and leaves them deep red at the ARCA open, twice as deep when the cash market opens.  This is why I am in early.  Normally I trade short-term positions and balance with small futures positions.  This time I'm out in front because I believe that when the risk-off switch is thrown the public, hip-deep in stocks and ETFs will be thrown to the wolves right off the bat. Their confidence that they can hit the sell key will be shattered. Certainly I expect this after mid-May when the I1 sell signal hits. 
There is something that has changed in the response behavior to environmental conditions since the Japan quake.  Since this is reptilian response I am not sure that it can be isolated, at least not in words.  The lead remains and thus far has not decayed.  I am certain that it will disappear but cannot predict when at this time.
DJI 12,270 will be the first confirmation of trend change.

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