Thursday, April 28, 2011

4/28 Daily Commentary

The disparity amongst the stock indexes is striking.  Nasdaq remained well under last night's highs and Russell stayed below but got with a point to 860.40 vs. 860.80 last night.  SP futures got above by 2 points but closed off the highs and is currently right at last night's high 1356.25.  SP going below 1355 will confirm that today's rally was just an abc forming an irregular flat.
If all we look at are the cash indexes then today was an extension of the rally with the DJI pacing the pack.  However, looking at the futures, we see the broader market lagging badly.
Here is the Russell futures:
Here is the Nasdaq futures:
Here is the SP futures:
You can see that SP futures coming back below 1355 will confirm the irregular flat and alarm a fake-out breakout.
I normally don't post daily stats, but today's breadth does not indicate a 72-point DJI rally.  NYSE 2419 advancing with 1537 declining including preferreds which did well today because bonds rallied.  Nasdaq 1402 advancing, 1233 declining.  No preferreds here and gives a good picture of common-only.
So I'll be watching futures for new highs in ND, Russell.  If they don't come and SP gets back below 1355 this could be a good set-up for renewed shorts in the morning.
I had to reduce SDS by 2% when the DJI finally broke through it's M/A envelope.  However, this could be a sale I will need to buy back higher if the broad market re-asserts itself.  I'll know tonight.
The raw I1, turns out, has a full 6-day lead and it has not decayed as I expected so far.  The peak I1 on 4/19 counts 6 days forward to today's bar.

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