Wednesday, June 1, 2011

6/1 pre-open

Nasdaq futures spiked last night.  That was the high for the counter-trend rally.  Today the supply chain disruption from Japan held ADP to 38,000 jobs, far below estimates.  SP futures came down to their 30-minute M/A.  A 30-minute close below 1333.25 will confirm a new downtrend is in place.
DJI critical M/A envelope 12,580 still stands.  My stop is at 12,585.  I don't expect this to happen.
Today is the first top day in the short-term timing component of I1.  I'll be increasing shorts late today.
Currently holding 3% SDS, 2% DXD, 1% SOPIX, 1% UXPIX. 

I've already gotten a sell signal in DJ futures by a decline .3% below it's 10-minute, 76-unit M/A. 
This does not carry the same weight as the SP futures 30-minute M/A, however.  So, I'll look to increase shorts on strength after the 30-minute break or near the close today.


  1. Good morning!

    Yeah, the ADP report was pretty bad. And right on queue to give the market a "reason" to head south, just as I1 indicated it would.

    You said you would add to your shorts on strength after a 30 min close below 1333.25. So your plan is to wait for that 30 min close which will confirm a new downtrend, then wait for the market to rally on a retracement of that initial move down, and then you'll begin adding shorts on that retracement, right?

    Do you look for a Fib retracement, like 38 or 50 percent, or do you use the wave structure, like look for 3 waves up?

    Good luck!

  2. pima,
    Right back at ya! I'll wait for confirm, then a rally up to DJI 150-minute if it looks like a 3 up.

  3. thanks, Steve! Getting pretty exciting this morning! ES trading below 1333.25 as we speak, but it needs to stay down there for another 15 minutes.

  4. You got your 30 minute close.

    However, right now it on the 30 min chart it looks like we're in the middle of a 3rd wave down. This thing could go much lower before we get a retrace.

    In a situation like this, where the new downtrend is confirmed and you're waiting to short into strength but the wave pattern looks like it will continue lower before doing a retracement, do you just short into the move as it's happening? In other words, short the breakdown.

  5. Hi Steve,
    Can u do a post on all the MA's that u use? and how u use them?