Got a few minutes to expand on the backdrop. My wave counts have been differing from Elliott Wave International's (EWI). Yesterday my count was that we had a 5-wave up off of the Minute 1 of Minor 3 and that a B and C wave were to follow. EWI's was that Minute 2 was done at yesterday morning's high. The trading day went on with my taking a bullish position when wave B appeared complete shortly after 11am. Bernanke's testimony forced another abc sequence within the larger ABC and the plunge marked the end of the C wave, as I posted before the low was in. I took a long position on this belief at a good price. Then, I allowed my judgement to be swayed by EWI's position and I sold my longs and went tiny short with tight, moving stops. The moral of the story is that my counts usually bear correct because of the time dimension that I am able to employ due to I1. I need to stick to my guns. The other, more instructive moral is that the market will finish it's path when non-critical news causes traders to panic. This move today is the completion of the goal that the market was on it's way toward yesterday.
The C wave should be complete now, in line with I1 downturn starting tomorrow (today was basically an I1 double-top). I'm only in halfway 4% SDS and 4% short SP futures, waiting for a minor trend change to occur. My indication of this at this time is a decline in SP futures below 1088.50. I am expecting a move that is bigger than the scale of the I1 downturn over the next week. 3rd of 3rd of 3rd.
No comments:
Post a Comment