I1 tomorrow is up but just barely. I am flat at this moment. Got out at SP 1095 4% short and 4% QID. 2% SP was covered and 2% SDS sold at the close. Actually made money from last Thursday on. Not a lot, but stopping out .25% above previous highs and getting back in on the diagonal triangle recognition helped. EWI did not publish a diagonal triangle, but the market looks like it wants to go to the measurement target for it at 1085. I wanted to go short because I am long-term bearish, but the I1 move from 7/13 to today was less than .5 point. 3.64 to 3.18. Because it troughed at < 3.25 it was technically a formal sell signal but trading rule #4 (for longer-term trades) states:
4 For longer-term traders:
a) stay long until final peak or until it falls below 9.0, whichever is lower.
b) stay short as long as next peak <3.0.
c) ignore I1 moves lasting less than 1 week or with a swing < .5.
So it was a little-gain swing with 2 days solidly against the trade.
The Daily Technical Composite is at -6, short of a sell signal, so it is neutral. I got back home late and will revisit the market in the AM.
Steve,
ReplyDeleteI managed a 1.21% gain on this swing down (to raise me over 100% for the year) using my scale in as the market moves against you strategy. Now flat. I thought the afternoon rally was pretty impressive and futures look down pretty hard before the big GDP # in the AM. I would prefer a down opening to allow me to start positioning long for the rise into Aug 13. I should have some time to work on our project next week as my fam is heading off on vacation.
Cheers,
Charles
ps I know many bearish folks over the next few weeks..the consensus prediction seems to be down until mid Aug then up...exactly contradictory to I1!
pps how do bonds look? I follow the AGG etf as a bond proxy and it looks ready to turn over.
Steve
ReplyDeleteLooking at the futures this morning and the lows of yesterday and if the DJI comes back down to 10400 but does not penetrate yesterdays lows we would have a bottom. I say this because in the past you had pointed out to me that this formation is a bottom. Would that be a good place to go long if you were a betting man?
Jack C
You guys are great. I'll look into the bonds today and get back.
ReplyDelete