Monday, July 26, 2010

7/26 2:30

I want to re-post the sequence of posting from the time Friday when 10,400 was breached and I switched to an alternate count until last night when I posted the final targets for the C wave.  I was out of all futures and most of my short ETFs at DJI 10,376, the orthodox high 10,351 + 25 points.  It took a few minutes to get the post out at 1:40 with DJI at 10,403.

7/23 1:40   with DJI at 10,403.  It stayed below 10,403 until 1:53 allowing time to reduce positions.

About another 50 points on the upside.

7/23 1:45

Current wave count calls for another high about 10,460 cash DJI. The market went nowhere today because it was in wave 4 forming a rectangle for the final push.

7/23 1:53          This is the post with the alternate wave count.  Projection at this time was 10,460.

This is a DJ futures chart add 50 points to equate with the cash DJI:



7/23 2:00       Max updated to 10,480 DJI based on 220-day M/A. 

The 220-day M/A agrees with my earlier DJI projection. The 220-day is 10,330 but has an envelope of 150 points, say max at 10,480 vs. 10,460 based on the rectangle. This will be the final push even though it required going to an alternate count.

7/23 3:51

Looks like 1 more new high.
7/23 4:06

SP and ND futures are making new highs here.
The Weekly Commentary outlined the SP futures resistance and the Sunday posts laid out the strategy for capitalizing on an SP futures push to 1108-1109.  My stops are constantly moving based on moving averages, except when a high or low has been established which is at the end of a wave count of more than sub-minuette degree.  Then I post the line in the sand.  Knowing Friday when then DJI broke out that the max was first 10,460 then 10,480 at 2pm allowed me to exit most of my position and await better prices. 
 
To help those holding positions that want to use my stop method, add .24% to an orthodox DJI high to obtain a stop price.  Opposite for lows.   So the stop for a current position is DJI 10,495 + 25 or 10,520.

2 comments:

  1. I tagged along for the ride... nabbed some short contracts @ 1109.50 ... have a trailing stop now, so some wave 2/4 action might take profits a bit too soon, but I've got a day job so I have to go with stops...i also followed overnight. When you go back and look you can see where you said if ES 1103 is broken that it would be on to 1109.... good call, so far :)

    --shabs

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  2. Good trading! I only got 1108.
    Setting stops is a requirement for any trading. Glad you use them. Now let's see if I1 will finally kick in...

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