Wednesday, September 15, 2010

9/15 8:25

Shorted DJ futures 1% at 10,498.  It broke out of triangle to the downside.


  1. Hi Steve, any chance of an updated I1 graph?

    I was interested to see such a lunar cycles make up part of this, have you ever detailed what goes into the I1 even on a broad scope?

    I listen to Arch Crawford and the I1 seems to match his predictive timings too.

  2. Hi Steve,
    Thanks for reply on my earlier comment in regards to the reflation question.

    I was reviewing your I1 data values and I noticed the negative values in October 2010. Does this negative data point in I1 also translate into a measured move in the markets in terms of magnitude? For example, I quickly glanced at 2008 I1 data values and noticed that I1 was <4 starting in late June 08, but never went negative. Can we conclude that that the upcoming move will be significant because of the negative print?

    Thank you,

    Steve W

  3. Steve, I couldn't help but notice that the I1 bottoms just before the Fed's meeting in very early November.. at that point the market will be begging for QE2 no doubt.

    Should be fun!

  4. Steve
    Negative values do imply greater decline than normal. However, 2008 had broad decline that was related to one-time financial crisis so it was greater due to that factor.