Thursday, November 18, 2010

11/18 pre-open

The push I was looking for Wednesday night occurred last night with the EU, IMF, and Britain in a show of fiat force with a loan larger than necessary for Ireland.  FM IPO buzz is in there as well. The cash market count is pretty clear with a wave 4 in progress.  The alternate is that the 3 waves down finished an abc which is all we will see for this I1 cycle.   Wave 4 must stop at 1196 SPX the Minute 1 low, which is 17.40 above it's close.
SP futures has a slightly different count but the same conclusion.  Wave 4 overlaps at 1193.25, but this being futures some trivial overlap is allowed.  Give it to 1194.
If the cash market violates Minute 1 then the down move must be counted as complete.
I walked into tonight with no futures positions.  I bought 1% DX futures 78.665.  JP Morgan predicts dollar to fall a ton so that means a bull market is in the cards.  DX cannot go below 78.50 without invalidating the count below:
This puts the dollar market right at critical support now and implies a top for the stock futures as well.
DX wave 5 should top out just under 80.

No comments:

Post a Comment