Tuesday, November 23, 2010

11/23 Addendum

Here's what I'm looking at to confirm any break of 10,975 is genuine.  The blue M/A must be broken by 135 points.
It was a 3-wave down so there is no hope of a 5 down developing.  A break of the low will cause me to go short a small amount, but it won't be meaningful until this daily M/A break occurs.


  1. TF

  2. A major turning point might be at hand if the SP500 closes below 1219.8 on Tuesday Nov30.
    Definition (with my own words, humbly) of the very reliable Vic2B pattern from legendary trader Victor Sperandeo:
    1. the prices make a significant high after a significant uptrend
    2. then retreat making a pivot low significant
    3. resume a new uptrend and make an attempt to break the previous high, break it but fail (during this bar or the next but this bar is better) to close above, thus closing below the previous high.
    4. a short trade is entered on a break below the low of the breakout-higher bar or, a bit more conservative, one waits a close below the breakout-higher bar, and the low of this new bar, minus one tick, becomes the short entry.
    5. The number of bars separating the 2 highs is 5-8 ideally
    6. The target of the ensuing swing low is the low of the previous swing high
    7. this pattern works in any time frame, from 1 minute to yearly charts.
    Now let me put numbers and dates on the above bullets, using a SP500 monthly chart
    1. SP500 @ 1219.8 - April 2010
    2. SP500 July low @ 1010.91
    3. we will only know by next Tuesday: if closes below 1219.8 then bullet 3. is confirmed
    4. if 3. above confirmed, then 1-tick below November's low is the short entry (more conservatively we would enter one tick below the low of the bar that breaks November's low-thus we would break only in January 2011 assuming it goes lower than December 2010 low)
    5. if 3. and 4. above confirmed we indeed had between 5 and 8 bars (7 actually) separating the 2 highs
    6. the target for the new swing low is the low of the previous swing high, that is: SP500 @ 666...
    Thus, so far, the setup of this powerful pattern is perfect.
    Note: on the link below, something even more in favor of this pattern actually building: a divergence between prices and volumes between the 2 peaks, and also on the Accumulation/Distribution indicator.
    Steve, I think we will not go into new highs through April- I think it is over right now.

    Take care and keep up this great blog.

  3. Re Carl's point, didn't the SPX already make that new high recently?

  4. Nice Carl

    Thanks for sharing.

    Jack C

  5. ES and ZB
    Have a great Thanksgiving!

  6. Steve

    The SML closed within a 1/2 point of Nov. 5,9 highs and within 3 points of the April high today so it reached this point 3 times this year. It did the same thing in 2008 at this very same level with the third time being the start of 2008 major decline.

    Jack C