Sunday, November 14, 2010

11/14 4:30

Stock futures have opened a bit higher.  I have an order to short DJ futures at 11,220.
I have an order shorting crude at 86.20 and buying the dollar at 77.82.
Gold and silver are a bit higher and I am holding short silver with no further orders.
Charles posited a comment regarding Fed intent.  Ben knows a bear market will produce deflationary psychology. In my view he had five goals with QE:

1) Stop the implosion in leverage assets that was occurring in 2008/2009
2) Push down the dollar to get U.S. business more competitive
3) Buoy the stock market and reverse the negative psychology at that time
4) Keep long-term rates low so that banks would be forced out of the spread and start to lend. This would also finance the exposion of treasury debt and keep finance costs down.
5) Get a knock-on effect on employment and economic activity once psychology turned from deflation to inflation.
QE2 came along at a time when the Fed had succeeded in the first 4 goals but deemed it touch-and-go concerning the 5th.  I believe Ben knew that with GOP in control of the House that if he were going to expand the fiat it had to be before the committees were reconstituted and opposition organized on the House floor.  Since QE2 the negative effects of the original QE were being manifested:  long rates were coming back up and commodities had peaked, albeit from a high level.  The market response since QE2 has been counter-intuitive.  Goals 2, 3, and 4 were being reversed as world markets perceived the effects of QE, the chief effect being the rapid escalation of protectionism, still in it's early stages.  Exported inflation in the form of rising commodity costs to emerging industrial states with weak natural resources was supposed to raise their costs along with the weak dollar and get America back into the game.  The actual effect was to make America an economic pariah, to be fought individually and via trading blocs.
The markets are going to be leaving politicians and media pundits scratching their heads. I don't think they want to lower markets to get treasuries rallying again.  At this point all the Fed wants to do is restoke inflation.  When one looks at the CRB index over the past year and a half with a 50% gain why anyone would want to restoke inflation is a question for a psychologist.

1 comment:

  1. Steve:

    I am not sure how QE II is going to work out in the end, but one thing I know is that the Savers in this country are getting totally screwed where the crooks on Wall Street are still enriching themselves at the Savers expense - this is all being allowed by our government. Rewarding the bad players and penalizing those who have done nothing wrong is morally wrong.

    Mark S

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