The rally occurring with only 1 session into the I1 low increases the odds of a Minor 4 triangle because we have a complete 3 down and the probability of smashing below yesterday's low in a single session is low. I was hoping for and betting on the rectangle being wave 4 and a 5 down developing.
The conclusion is that this I1 cycle will only form a 3 down unless the market extends the decline beyond the I1 low, which is again a lower probability.
The forecast posted 11/8 and again on 11/16 holds:
I am counting the March,2009 - April,2010 rally as a 5 wave, an abc correction from April to early July, and a 5 wave, of which Minor wave 3 finished 11/5.
The upcoming Minor wave 4 will probably last into December 21, with an initial low 11/18, a rally to 12/3-4, and a retest of the low of 11/18 occurring on 12/21. So, odds favor a rectangle or triangle. Wave 5 will probably not break out until after the 1st week of January then rally into the 4th week of March. When complete this 5 wave will complete wave C up from 2009.