Tuesday, November 16, 2010

11/16 10:30

We have a gap this morning that will be filled at 1197.15.  I have no idea when this will occur.
My expectations for the stock market were expressed 11/8 but I'll update them here.
When SPX exceeded the April high that destroyed any double-zigzag count that I may have entertained. I am counting the March,2009 - April,2010 rally as a 5 wave, an abc correction from April to early July, and a 5 wave, of which Minor wave 3 finished 11/5.  When complete this 5 wave will also complete wave C up from 2009.

The upcoming Minor wave 4 will probably last into December 21, with an initial low 11/18, a rally to 12/3-4, and a retest of the low of 11/18 occurring on 12/21. So, odds favor a rectangle. Wave 5 will probably not break out until after the 1st week of January then rally into the 4th week of March.
Minor wave 4 should not exceed 775 points, the width of Minor wave 2 in August which leaves 10,665 as the max possible downside.  There is chart support at 10,700.

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