Friday, November 12, 2010

11/12 Daily Commentary

The turn in sentiment was first in the dollar,  then in commodities,  then in stocks.  This week I made good money in long dollar,  then in short silver (still holding) and short crude,  then going short the SPX via SDS.  I1 peaked 11/5 and the dominos started falling. 
The ability of the DJI to trade beneath 11,210 is very important.  This is the first time in several months that this has occurred.  The close below this level is also important to me.  I played it safe taking profits at SPX 1194.60 and carried only 2% SDS into the close.   I increased the exposure to 4% after hours at 26.57.  My best interpretation is that another decline to SPX 1191 is probable before the 5 down is complete.
I believe the dollar needs to decline marginally below 77.83 and I'll put in an order Sunday at 77.82 buying it.  This view of the dollar has shaded my opinion of the stock market in that there may be more upward correction Sunday night in the stock index futures.
Silver has broken down out of a descending triangle with a couple dollars more decline ahead.
I covered crude on what I suspect is the completion of a 5 down.  If it rallies 3 up I'll sell again.

Have a great weekend!

5 comments:

  1. Steve
    is I1 down thru nov 19? I know you mentioned nov 15 as a potential end too. 1191 is 90 degrees down according to Gann. Next stop after that would be 1157 or a test of 50 dma. That would be nice!
    Charles

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  2. Steve
    what is your strategy for the next bounce?
    Do you think the powers will have to drive the market down a bit here to restart the fear trade and drive people into treasuries to try to control interest rates? Looks like they are losing control
    Charles

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  3. Steve,

    I saw this on another blog and thought you'd appreciate--Quantitative Easing Explained. It's not only right on, but pretty funny. Enjoy!

    /www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTUY16CkS-k

    ReplyDelete