Monday, November 8, 2010

11/8 pre-open

The cash stock indices need a final rally to complete their wave counts.  The dollar completed it's first 5-wave up for Minute 1.  It now should trade back down to 76.62 for Minute 2.  While it is doing this the stock market should rally to a new high and crude should retest Friday's high.  This should happen today as Friday was I1 peak day.
SP futures traded a little down and the 30-minute M/A caught up with them.  It looked at the start of the night session that SP might break support at 1216.50 but this did not happen.  With the combination of chart support and 30-minute M/A there should be a rally that will provide the needed 5th wave up to complete minor 3 of C from the March,2009 low.  The blue line is the 30-minute M/A.

I contemplated the ramifications of the rally breaking the April highs over the weekend. I did shortsThursday expecting the April highs to hold and this forced me to face rather severe recounts.

When SPX exceeded the April high that destroyed any double-zigzag count that I may have entertained. I am counting the March,2009 - April,2010 rally as a 5 wave, an abc correction from April to early July, and a 5 wave in progress as wave C up from 2009. I believe that wave 3 of that 5 wave is itself in the 5th wave starting late Friday in the cash market and this morning in futures.
I have a target for SPX of 1235, but this will change as the 5th wave unfolds.
The upcoming Minor wave 4 will probably last into December 21, with an initial low 11/18, a rally to 12/3-4, and a retest of the low of 11/18 occurring on 12/21. So, odds favor a rectangle. Wave 5 will probably not break out until after the 1st week of January then rally into the 4th week of March.

5 comments:

  1. EURUSD
    Hey, Ben. Surprise!
    http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/11/eurusd_08.html

    ReplyDelete
  2. How did you figure the 76.620 target for the DX pullback? Also, have you counted the EUR/USD? It looks much cleaner than the DX.

    ReplyDelete
  3. 93-hour simple M/A. They both look good.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Steve

    SPX Futures hit 1,214.70, would you say we broke support and should now expect lower lows or are you still expecting a new high?

    Jack C

    ReplyDelete
  5. ES
    Diamond Top?
    http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/11/es_793.html

    ReplyDelete