Thursday, November 11, 2010

11/11 1:30

In normal market conditions I would say that the stock market is on the verge of breaking critical support.  This is the most flagrant Fed reflation since the Fed began in 1913.  We came within a single DJI point of breaking critical support several weeks ago.   I have my top count as wave 4 in progress of a 5 up that began a week ago Monday.  Overlapping 11,220 will bust that count.  11,210 is the critical support break point.  Until that is broken then Ben wins.  The equivalent wave 1 high in SPX is 1194, which is farther down than the DJI point.  Here is SPX 15-minute M/A which is currently at 1206.  I think 8 points below this will bust it.
1196 is also nice chart support so I would expect a bounce here.  Breaking 1194 will convincingly break chart support and the wave 1 high, so I'm still rooting for 1193.90.
As an aside, I updated the Trade History with current positions.  There is a 4% SDS position that does not have an offsetting sell order in the model account.  This is not reflected in any of my actual accounts.  Since the market price is at 26.01 here I am offsetting at my buy price.  I am currently flat stock positions.

3 comments:

  1. SPX
    Buckle up.
    http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/11/spx_11.html

    ReplyDelete
  2. This morning's low broke wave 1 line on NDX & COMP.

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  3. Looking at ND futures the low was registered yesterday and the low this morning was a 3-wave, irregular flat.

    ReplyDelete