Friday, April 1, 2011

4/1 10:15

I'm still holding 4% SDS and 1% ZSL. 
We are in a period of high I1 values. Looking at +7 peaks in I1 history shows there is little fear of missing a top by waiting until the I1 peak prior to a sustained move below +7 and the date that I1 declines below +7.   Intro and Concepts contains the I1 charts to verify this trading rule.  The next I1 peak that precedes a sustained move below +7 is 4/18-4/19 and the date I1 declines back below 7 is 4/26.  I think that waiting for the mid-May I1 peak would be past the stock market high.


  1. In an earlier post you said the best shorting opp will come at the mid-May I1 peak. However, in this post you're saying that that will likely NOT be the stock market high. So you're expecting the market high to come in at the April peak (or maybe we've already see the high)?

  2. pima, I've revised the expectation for the high either 4/18 or 4/26. I'll be shorting both. I've created a rule that keeps me out of shorting high I1 environments, like this week.