Monday, April 11, 2011

4/11 Daily Commentary

Only the XMI shows a clear 5 up from Friday's low.  DJI and SPX are not as clear-cut and Nasdaq shows a clear 3 up.  I'm going to call it that today was just another day of 3-wave consolidation within an ongoing wave (iv). 
I'm buying 1% YM futures at 12293.

Last week I determined to short the stock market at 2 different dates, 4/18-19 at the I1 peak and 4/26 when I1 declines below +7, the bullish threshold.  There is another reason to short the 26th, that is using the 30-day smoothing of I1, which has an excellent record for longer-term moves.
 Both the raw and smoothed I1 are bullish over the next week, so I must be as well.


  1. not looking right???

  2. YM down huge... not right!!????

  3. Steve,
    With more Japan news, it looks like we will test the 50 SMA around 1314-1315. This looks like a natural spot for support: the 50 day and the top of an Ichimoku cloud. I am still long too.
    ps did you get a chance to look at the wave counts in that link I posted last night? what were your impressions? I definitely yield to your greater Elliot knowledge than my own.

  4. Charles,
    A good site. I agree with McHugh's short-term count. He also expects a 5th up. I'm holding to the long-term count of a C wave below the 2009 low.