Friday, April 15, 2011

4/15 noon

I shorted silver this morning via ZSL.  The 5th wave visible on 1 minute charts has morphed into a diagonal triangle which should be ending up around 42.82-42.86. 

The I1 paints a picture of a speculative tide that is in the process of rolling out. 
I believe that the Japan quake and nuclear mess not only distorted the I1 relationship with the stock market in the second week of March and the stock market's subsequent rally, but this event has tilted the world toward a slowdown that comes at a time of non-US tightening.  The world is tightening policy to counteract mad Ben's flood of dollars into the hands of specs.  The cuts in estimates are coming in sooner than I thought.  Worldwide GDP slowing will cause corporate revenue growth at the same time as a cost squeeze affects margins.  Consumers around the world are still price-sensitive and it will be difficult to pass on those costs.  Silver will be affected by this coming trend.
SP futures passed the test by a 30-minute close above 1315 so the rally has more legs and is in a 5th up now.


  1. Steve

    Just went short again. Could be one more push up, I'll short more if it does.

    Jack Cyrul

  2. Steve: nice call for silver top, I bought zsl too, do you think this is silver top? or just another correction

  3. Steve

    All filled up, target SPX 1285.

    Jack C

  4. If it weren't for the 2/22 unfilled gap on the $COMPQ, I'd say the highs are in. Hard to believe the gap in question won't be filled before a decline.

  5. For silver I think this is the start of a move into mid-July.