Wednesday, April 6, 2011

4/6 9:45

Back home last night and caught up on rest.  I can't use some of my tools in hotels because they require more horsepower than my laptops can deliver.  Good to be back.
I1 double-bottomed starting yesterday and has a top 4/18-4/19.  I sold my SDS yesterday but I thought that today would offer a trading range or mild downward bias.  However, it appears that bullish sentiment won't allow a normal correction to unfold.
Although the nominal I1 peak is behind us it remains at very high levels. +7 is the threshold, but the depth of an upcoming I1 decline governs the behavior of the market within an I1 cycle as well. By the time the Mid-may I1 peak comes in I believe we will be past the stock market high, but that will be the time frame for the bear train leaving the station.  With monetary imbalances in full swing and without the support of upcoming QE to distort the natural sentiment shift indicated by I1, a decline with some real meat on it should occur.

The stock market finished wave (iii) last week and wave (iv) yesterday.  However (v) unfolds will probably coincide with the I1 peak 4/18.  A slightly lower probability is 4/26 when I1 declines below +7.  For those comfortable with waiting until the bearish trend begins to manifest itself mid-May is viable because this bear should not start out with a crash.  However, missing the I1 sell signal then would be a mistake.

The PM1 sentiment gauge bottomed Friday, ushering a final metals rally into the end of April.  I sold ZSL Friday at 23.21.

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