Thursday, April 7, 2011

4/7 pre-open

ECB joined the rest of the world tightening up.  Here is an exerpt from the 3/20 Addendum:

In an environment without excessive currency creation the normal relationship between a stock market and a bond market is that rates will peak several months after the stock market peak. Looking around the world, interest rates are going up, not down. As a result of Fed policy (and QE2 in particular), the dollar is rapidly being replaced in international transactions. At the same time the disparity between short-term interest rates in the US and most other countries is becoming wider by the day. Emerging economies are being forced to raise rates to reduce the Fed-exported commodity inflation. Marginal economies in the EU generally have high debt loads and are rapidly being marginalized from willing creditors. Their interest rates are being thrust upon them and are rising apace. The remaining relatively healthy developed economies are breaking ranks with Ben and are engaged in de-facto if not outright rate-hiking out of fears of the long-term effects of prolonged ease. World monetary policy has been continuously easy for 2.5 years with QE making policy easier than appears on rate charts. This growing disparity in monetary policies between the U.S. and the rest of the world is bearish the dollar and is also damaging American prestige.

DJ futures and SP futures have been buoyant against their moving averages, meaning that the "normal" tests of moving support have been very light.  This indicates that the underlying trend remains intact. SPX and Nasdaq are testing old highs and consolidating prior to the push for the new highs, goodtime feelings, and the rest of the sentiment and technical conditions for the final top.  SPX taking out it's old high 1344 will get the buzz to a fever pitch.  This is wave (v) in progress.
The pretty green line indicates support at 1327.50.  In the SPX support is firm at 1333.

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