Wednesday, May 18, 2011

5/18 Daily Commentary

The market declined Tuesday to daily M/A and trendline support and I sold all of my short ETFs near the lows.

I came into today with no short ETFs, 1% SOPIX, and 1% UCPIX.  I posted that I was waiting for a return to the DJI critical M/A. 
 I shorted a small amount just above 12,535 and more at 12,550.  The market posted a strong day with breadth 3-1.  This does a good job of scaring off bears, so the chart traders that shorted the breakdowns 2 days ago covered today.
SP futures rose to their 90-minute M/As and hovered there at the cash market close.  If futures put in a 90-minute close 6 points above this M/A then it increases odds that trend has changed to the upside.

I'm riveted to analysis of I1 and it's solar-lunar timing cycle which may be breaking from the 8-day lead that manifested itself last month and returning to it's normal accuracy.  The following series registers a buy on bottoms or +2, whichever is greater.  It registers top on peaks or 10.5, whichever is lesser.  Thus a peak that occurs at +12 will not register the sell signal until it returns back below 10.5.  This series has displayed an 8-day lead since Japan as indicated on the chart.  However, in the current cycle it registered it's latest sell signal by declining below 10.5 on Monday, which was correct.  If the market declines into Monday then the lead will have disappeared and this series (and I1) will be synchronized
with the stock market once again.  If the market continues to rally into 3/25 then the lead remains. 

Here is the I1 which displays a similar lead:

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