Wednesday, May 25, 2011

5/25 Daily Commentary

I'll be on the road Thursday through Monday, so I'll just be monitoring after the close tomorrow and Friday.
Today the stock market advanced in a 5 wave, indicating more upside to come.  DJI critical M/A is currently 12,430 and will be broken on rally to 12,597.

Reasonable targets are SPX 1335 and DJI 12,560.

Timing involves the components of I1.  First the Time Elevations series, which tracks I1 components at high and low values.  It generates a signal the day after Memorial Day:

The second is the solar-lunar component of I1, which indicates the day after Memorial Day as a potential top day.  This series indicates that prices will hold up through June 9, but I don't believe the peak will wait that long.  I want to get short May 31.

I apologize for getting the envelope for DJ futures wrong.  Reviewing my notes the correct envelope is 1.1%.   DJ futures ticked slightly below but DJ cash stayed comfortably within the envelope.
Happy Memorial Day, everyone!


  1. Thanks, Steve. Happy Memorial Day and safe and fun travels to you! See you next week.

  2. Steve

    Hope you have a great trip!

    It looks like Silver made it to your target of $38.65 overnight. I suspect it did so as it completed wave 3 up of wave C. Since wave 2 of C was complex and sideways, wave four should be sharp and simple (like an ABC wave). Then the fifth wave of wave C should make it to something higher than wave 3.

    Then Silver should start wave 3 down, which should be profitable for us shorts!

    Thank you for posting; it is greatly appreciated!


  3. Happy Memorial Day Steve.

  4. Dennis,
    The top of wave 4 in the big decline was 39.38 on the nearest futures chart. 39.35 - 39.65 is a good target target for end of move.