The solar/lunar component of I1 has had an 8-day lead since the Japan quake in mid-March. This cycle appears to have broken the lead and returned the series to synchronicity. It topped with the market earlier this month, declined into it's trough, and will advance past +2 tomorrow. This is a buy signal, so if the market starts a one-week rally overnight/tomorrow then the lead has disappeared from the series. This will make my forecasting job easier for the short-term moves in the future.
I posted this morning that DJ futures would remain normal if they did not decline below 12,312. Their low was 12,311, so this M/A envelope held and, given the I1 component and precious metals ready to rally, should provide an opportunity to short for a 2-month move into August. Today's decline overlapped the prior high in April, so I know we are not in a 5 up to new highs.
The checklist for the current market status is as follows:
1) DJ critical M/A is on sell. Currently 12,490 overhead resistance.
2) SP futures 30-minute M/A is on sell. Currently 1325.75 overhead resistance.
3) I1 30-day is on sell
4) Cycles are on sell
The bullish forces for the stock market are:
1) Short-term oversold
2) DJ daily M/A
3) I1 component bottomed today
DJI cash 50-day chart:
Over the weekend I updated the Longer Signals using Time Elevations with an averaged version of this series. The raw version flashes sell next Wednesday while the averaged version is on a sell currently.
Silver cycle chart:
Here is the gold cycle chart:
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