Wednesday, June 8, 2011

6/8 9:30

I decreased my short position a few days ago to re-position on a rally.  We got the rally to SP 30-minute M/A, where I repurchased short ETFs yesterday.  I bought short silver yesterday and short Euro at the close.  Currently 5% SDS, 2% EUO, 1% ZSL, 1% SOPIX, 1% UCPIX.
All of these positions are strongly correlated with "Risk-Off" sentiment.  The bounce from 4/18 lows has been tepid.  I1, raw and smoothed, is pointing down into July and again mid-August.  The short-term timing component of I1 peaked at over 12 two days ago but allows for rally through tomorrow.  This component indicates that a waterfall decline is still ahead but not for another 2 days.
I'll buy another 2% SDS if SP futures rally 5 points over their 30-minute M/A and sell 4% SDS on a 30-minute close more than .5% above the M/A. 

When the stock market gives it up the dollar will benefit.  A big hurdle is at 75+ in DX futures.  I plan on selling EUO there and awaiting .7% beyond to put short Euro back on.
While I'm into the "Risk-Off" trade 2 days early it pays to fade strength as the window starts closing on risk. Silver is a good short as long as it stays within the .7% envelope of it's 90-minute M/A (blue line):

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