3/16 Daily Addendum Technicals

The technical composite was unchanged from yesterday.  Since the daily composite is primarily price momentum series, it takes a day or two for price activity to register. 
Here is the technical composite from 1/1/2009 to today:

The current value is -20. While this is short-term very negative it is not a sell signal.  -22 is a sell signal going back for 30 years. The negative impact of today's trading will be evident tomorrow. 

Here is the technical composite going from 1/1/2007 through 6/15/2009:

So, you say, the values in May, 2009 went below -22 and resulted in nothing but a consolidation period.  The same with August, 2009 which got down to -32.  Hah!  Some data series, can't even stop a roaring bull market!

True, but we must consider the backdrop.  Here is the weekly technical composite which includes a wider array of technical series:

The weekly composite reached +24 which is astronomical based on the historical record (over +16 is a buy signal).  This signal stays in effect until the composite returns to +4, which did not occur until November.

So, in May when my daily composite hit -24 then the weekly composite was +20, wildly bullish.  In August it was +12, still on bullish signal level much less far from the return to normalcy (+4).

The weekly composite is now -1.  So what, you ask?  Well, it means that a signal level of -22 is now a big deal.  At -20 currently and with a big stock rally day to absorb I am getting dopey with anticipation. As long as the stock market does not collapse tomorrow the -22 is baked in the cake.  Therefore, I can look forward to selling on any strength (DJI 10,700).  If strength will not materialize I am now more comfortable selling on minor weakness.

The shorting points for tomorrow that are stable enough to hold for the first hour are:

DJI 10700 and 10725

XMI 1176.60

SPX  1144

A breakdown DJI below 10637 will probably cause me to sell, depending on other factors.