3/26 Daily Commentary

Bought another short silver ZSL but sold this afternoon.  Did not know about the Korea hubbub until 3:00, which explained silver's relative strength.  Bought and sold for 4.38.  Today was top day for the Dollar forward sentiment.  Either the dollar gauge is wrong or the silver gauge is wrong.  They cannot both go down over the next month.  Can they???

Went short crude at 9:30 DTO 64.20 and held to exit at 65.80.  Crude should have rallied with the scare but did not.  I don't want to go short until either the stock market decline begins (I1 peaks or DJI declines<10,710) or Brent crude declines beneath 78....
Stock market retested yesterday's low this afternoon.  Bought DDM long dow at 47.50 and sold at 47.70 and 47.64 later.  Will re-enter on the long side if SPX rallies past 1168.75.  I1 is up through next Friday, which is a holiday.  If DJI declines below 10,710 then I will short early.  Since this level is near an important low 10,695 I will await a bounce for a 5% position.  10,710 is below the important high 10,730.

In case you haven't noticed I rely a lot on moving averages.  Hardly a stochastic or RSI in my toolkit.  Here is another on that I use when the stock market is in a congestion zone (like this afternoon).  The red line plus .19% should indicate breakout:

I despise this market.  It's just built on lies and when the stim runs out and the lies cannot cover up underlying conditions it will fall a ton.  So, even though I expect U.S. stocks to rally from here in accord with I1 and critical resistance,  I do not want to carry stocks over the weekend.  I'll play the breakout Monday.  I won't be comfortable with the stock market until the green line is exceed by .56%.  That is way far away.

Currently I am short silver 1.5% ZSL.  Maybe metals will rally on war scare, in which case it will not hurt much.  Silver stop is beyond the 90-minute M/A which is 17.10 on a 90-minute close. 
Flat crude, flat stocks pending breakout.