Monday, March 29, 2010

3/29 10:00

Dollar peaked on time Friday.  Followed dollar to reduce silver exposure Friday.  Will ignore declining silver forward sentiment until stock sentiment peaks (4/2, with holiday, Thursday or Monday).
Here is dollar forward sentiment (I call it DXcom) updated from the one posted last week:
So, dollar on a decline over this week or until 80.00 is reached.  This is bullish for commodities.  I1 also has positive correlation with silver and oil, but not as strong as their optimized forward gauges. So, I got confirmation as to which gauge the market was going to follow.  Should have known, with uptrending I1 and downtrending dollar gauge (DXcom), that commodities were set to rally.  Will not short crude or silver until I1 turns.  Anticipating stock market rally this week to discount positive job report.
I am long stock market with 2.5% DDM.  This has already offset stop-out in short silver.  Sold tiny position of ZSL at 4.20.

Confirmation of stock market rally will be with futures 30-min M/A + 6 points.  If June futures can exceed 1171.60 I can increase stock long position.

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