The long-term I1 forecast calls for sub-standard I1 values from May, 2010 through May, 2015. These protracted periods of I1 < 4 define the boundaries of declining market trends. Looking at I1 more closely one can observe that the peak 4/29 is the last peak prior to the persistent weakness. So, why not wait for this event? Why sell at the 3/5 peak? According to the rule set, in the absence of signals I trade the I1 peaks and troughs but not as law. I allow for movements beyond the peak/trough date, which is what I am doing now. The formal sell at 4/2 will be a momentum decline, but with the stock market so technically over-extended I am more than willing to trade I1 peaks and troughs.
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