Friday, March 19, 2010

3/18 Daily Commentary

On the rpad at a convention.  Got back to the hotel late and tired. 
I1 bottom due today at close.  The I1 move from 3/5-3.19 was not a sell signal, but merely an opportunity to short (if other reasons exist).  The primary reason for me on March 5 top day was the expectation that either S&P would hold at 1150 or that XMI would hold at 1190 (January high 1189.93).  XMI high yesterday was 1193.  Put stops in yesterday above highs in XMI (1192),  SPX (1172) and Nasdaq Comp (2404) which resulted in selling off half of DXD position (bringing it down to 5% and short positions down to 12.5%).
The blue chips made nominal new highs while Nasdaq and S&P stayed weaker throughout the day.  The DJI and XMI did not appear impulsive and were just stop-grabbing.  Being on the road I had to close my eyes and let Mongo work (pre-positioned order), hence sold 1/2 the DXD.
3/19 pre-open Nasdaq is a bit weak and silver is down 14c.  The spec tide is receding short-term.  I must remove the short positions at the close in accord with I1.  The I1 move from 3/19 to 4/2 takes a bit more than .5.  That means that I cannot stay short through it even if I had good reason to.  Right now XMI is testing January's high.  SPX needs 6 points down to break initial support. 
In order to short in the face of rising I1 DJI needs to decline below 10,540. 
Looking forward to 4/2 it is the key date for the 2010-2015 bear market.  4/2 is the top trigger for a sell signal into 4/12.  The next top is 4/29 but I believe that the stock market will top prior to that date (for other reasons 4/22 is my top date).  From that top the I1 enters into a 5-year period of sub-par values. 
As for today I will put in stops at XMI 1194, SPX 1172 and Nasdaq Comp at 2404.

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