7/19 Daily Commentary

Had a good day to make up half the loss Friday.  That's not what I was shooting for, it just happened.  I'm flat now, but I interpret the market since late Friday as being a widening rectangle.  The futures have just declined to test the lows and a bounce should complete the E wave within the rectangle.  I am free now to short this market because today was the last day with an increase in I1 that is not trivial.  The market broke critical support Friday so there is only the Feb and May lows ahead.

20100712 28.78697

20100713 30.21966

20100714 31.80805

20100715 33.66239

20100716 35.20112

20100719 36.13145

20100720 36.27178

20100721 36.41742

20100722 36.30637

20100723 34.96335

20100726 33.57488

20100727 32.35731

20100728 31.96437

20100729 31.80197

20100730 31.94768

20100802 33.12613

20100803 34.77583

20100804 36.69522

20100805 38.74793

20100806 40.58552

So, with my new-found freedom I will play the overnight trading as a rectangle and look for a bounce to 1065 in the SP futures.  It has been all 3-waves up and down since 2:30 Friday.  If the futures make a new low from here it will be the first 5-wave.