Yesterday I talked about Elliott's "irregular top" that has been discredited by current theorists. In that post I surmised that EWI would somehow count the minor new high over their Minute 2 as an impulse. So tonight they have a diagonal triangle in the making. This is an impulse wave. A diagonal has five 3-waves instead of 5-3-5. The problem is that we only have a single 3-wave up complete. This implies two more upwaves lasting several days. Also, this would mean that a completed wave structure with the final 5th wave as seen in the futures markets last Sunday finishing Minute 2 would somehow not become a 5 up from the August 31 low. Nonetheless EWI paints an ending diagonal and a Minute 2 label over it.
Thus, my disagreement with the above is threefold:
a) I1 peaked today on a formal sell signal, with a low of 1.86 on 9/30, well below the sell signal threshold of 3.25
b) The Daily Technical Composite retreated to +6 today, neutralizing the +22 buy signal on the 31st and removing the upward technical impetus that has propelled this rally.
c) The wave count was complete on Sunday evening for Minute 2, now would have an extra impulse. I do not believe that the 3-waves since Sunday evening's peak are a 4th wave. It would be out of proportion to any existing wave structure.
The I1 chart:
.bmp)
The Daily Technical Composite chart:
.bmp)
The wave count:
Wow you are looking for a nice drop in this time frame till November...DXD would be in 40's if your scenerio plays out..Sounds like a plan...thks enjoy reading your blog
ReplyDeleteSo this would have to be one opportunity of a lifetime to short...
ReplyDeleteWhat refrains you from going two hundred percent short and hold for a year?
Also check your wave count graph I think you mislabeled minute 1 twice..
Good call so far on the I1, for the three months I have been watching it has been a very nice tool and I am amazed it can be plotted one year out.
Hi, Steve. Your site was referred to in a post at evilspeculator.com so I'll be taking a look. While I know nothing about what I1 is about yet, I agree that we're at a top.
ReplyDeleteES: http://www.screencast.com/t/MWY4Y2NiN
This target is not my target. I don't like placing targets. This is something I shared from Jack C.
ReplyDeleteEastern,
ReplyDeleteI corrected the graph.
Thanks.