Tuesday, May 3, 2011

5/3 Daily Commentary

Today marked the first 5 down in the bear market.  I sold the short ETFs at the low and I'm waiting for a return to SP futures 30-minute M/A.  If ARCA is not open then I'll short futures until the ARCA open.
The top of (iv) is 1360 cash and 1357 futures.  The projected initial bottom is 5/11-12.

I haven't altered my silver 2% ZSL because there is still an enormous net long position in weak hands and they are praying for a rally to approach the old highs.  It won't happen but it keeps many from selling.
Gold is in a wave 4 up which should last another several days, so there is a modest new high ahead.  I'll short gold then. 

The dollar will not turn until the risk trade is ready to come off and the risk trade will not turn until the dollar bottoms.  Since I'm short stocks and metals I'm looking for a dollar bottom as a complement.  The same bullish intensity that existed in silver now exists inversely in the dollar.  The dollar is in a wave 4 down and I'll be buying when it looks like wave 5 is complete.  Coincide with gold peak?

I've been working on a couple of software projects, one of which is the cycle optimizer.  Instead of simply launching generation runs I've been analyzing the code to improve the optimization path.  This should lead to even better cycle projections.  I won't be spending as much time on the blog until this process is complete.  Every run that I make has been terminated before completion due to new software loads.  I am near the end of this process but the runs themselves will take days to complete when the final version of code is complete.  Beg your patience.

1 comment:

  1. Steve, you are my daily blog even if I just didn't think of sending a hello from time to time, how selfish. But as you described the heavy work you are doing now to become even better I though I would just say thank you, again. Pls keep up the great work.