7/14 Daily Commentary

Prognosis remains that the stock market will finish it's decline to support tonight and tomorrow.  Target is DJ futures 10,170 overnight and tomorrow the cash DJI 10,230.  These are buy spots for the continuation of the rally, in accord with the I1. The I1 rises through 7/21.

The technical composite remains on a buy signal reached at the low last Thursday.  The signal remains in effect until it returns down to +4.  This will take another week of advance to accomplish.

The wave count on the Nasdaq differs from SPX and DJI in that the cash Nasdaq sports a 5-wave down and the other indices are 3-waves in both futures and cash.  The Intel speculation drove Nasdaq up overnight yesterday and was support for all of the market.  That support was removed today as the Nasdaq opened very strong and traded relative weakness after that.

I have a 5% position in TLT the long bond ETF.  Treasuries ralled today and I will look to sell this position tomorrow on the stock market decline.