6/22 Daily Commentary

Expecting a bounce-back after a completed 5-wave down near the close.  This is i of (i) of 3 of (3).

The 5-minute, 380-unit M/A is my key for confirmation of trend reversal.  10,285 is the flash point.  The orthodox low of wave i was 10,288 but the market sucked in dumb shorts by a slightly lower low to 10,284 before recovering at the close.  10,284 does not constitute confirmation as it occurred in the closing minutes and was part of the normal market shenanigans.  Therefore a bounce-back can occur all the way back up to the 5-minute, 380-unit M/A which I will expect tomorrow.

Had a good day with both bonds and short stock ETFs and futures.  Currently short 4% SP Sep futures @ 1114 and long 5% TLT @ 96.50.  Had 2 day-trades profitable, with SDS taking almost the entire range.
Bonds are very close to break-out of a much larger triangle and are headed higher based on the extent of their coil:

By the way, EWI count has been modified to match my count.  It seems to be the universal opinion that wave 3 will begin with a bang.  We'll see, I am open to the possibility.  The existence of an entrenched support level at 9800 will delay a breakdown and with only 7 market days remaining a likely scenario for my suspicious mind is that the DJI takes out 9800 by a hundred and reverses on July 5.  Not that I'm paranoid but taking out lows with reversal is a money-maker.  And, gosh, there aren't any high-frequency trading programs that push big blocks to produce this effect, are there?  That might be unethical...Even the DJI can be influenced by enough manipulation.