Bought 2% QID 16.96 just now.
Here is a perspective on the upcoming decline into 7/5. DJI 9800 has been solid support for 1 year. During that time the DJI has traced out a head and shoulders. The bulls are betting that a decline to 9800 is a correction, the bears that it will fall and substantial new lows made. The bears thought that 9800 was going to fall several weeks ago, instead we had rally. Now 9800 is 660 points away. 7/5 is only 9 market days away and that is about the right amount of move for a normal swift decline, .7% per day.
Looking at I1 I find it more probable that the market will break key support after 8/1 than before. However, I don't have to be right on this point. I hold short through 7/5. If the market breaks 9800 during this period then I keep a portion short because the chart readers will be selling. If not, then I stand aside during the rising I1 until after 8/1, then monitor for the break of the 5-minute, 380-unit M/A. Here is the I1 chart:
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