Jack, I published your comments, but was not able to pull them up to respond. Can you post again?
The stock market is extending wave 2 higher as expected. Nasdaq should be completing wave (iii) of c of 2:
You can't rush a financial panic. It has to come to a boil. It's been a while since I relayed a long-term analysis, so here goes. The next period of financial distress is getting close enough that the I1 data is almost perfectly accurate, so we can talk down to the specific day.
I1 declines to a relatively low 2.16 on 7/5. This is not panic level but the decline should be sharp enough for the media to use the term. The stock market is extending wave 2 higher as expected. Nasdaq should be completing wave (iii) of c of 2:
You can't rush a financial panic. It has to come to a boil. It's been a while since I relayed a long-term analysis, so here goes. The next period of financial distress is getting close enough that the I1 data is almost perfectly accurate, so we can talk down to the specific day.
The panic should actually set in from 8/16 through 11/18. This should be downright ugly. Actually I will be alert for a panic from 8/1 on due to other factors and will enter short on support break after 8/1. Until then the bulls will have plausible deniability in the face of a rally from Independence Day into August. Here is the I1 through the panic period:
Steve,
ReplyDeleteArch Crawford is saying be on the lookout from Aug 1 on due to a "Cardinal Climax" alignment. To answer Jack's question, it does look double-topish but I think they take the market a bit higher to really make it look safe to jump back in the pool before they distribute again. Keep in mind this is almost quarter end so window dressing will occur. I wonder if we are set up for an October 1987 like crash with quadruple witching this Friday to set off the fireworks on Monday. Looking at the I1 decline from mid August, do you cover in October? Or hold through until Nov/Dec?
Thanks,
Charles
Steve,
ReplyDeleteI was thinking about one of your comments about your heart not being in going long right now. I face this dilemma too and I think it may arise from our psychology of believing bad times are just around the corner rather than take the trading opportunities given to us on both sides. It is a struggle, but I did make 3.5% last week but obviously got out too soon from my timing model (but that's why you follow the rules, right?)
Charles
Steve,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you see for the dollar? It looks like it wants to fall to 1.25 Euro at least. DeMark indicators need a down June or July to put a monthly buy signal on (more likely July). This would correspond with the projected stock rally after the 4th. Ichimoku has support another 2+% down which would seem to fit this scenario.
Thanks,
Charles
Charles,
ReplyDeleteI look for DX near 83 before correction is over. This is one reason I believe that the stock market decline through the 4th will not be a real crackup. My work shows dollar starting back up 8/10.
I can't comment on Arch's work. Don't know enough about it. I'm not surprised that environmental conditions and strong planetary alignments converge at times. The causal connection through sunspot/flare activity is there. I look for the decline through 11/15.
The stock market to decline through 11/15.
ReplyDelete