Still waiting on a rally to increase the short exposure. In the meantime, let's ramble...
Double dip is now becoming the consensus amongst economists (data hogs). Real economists taking the long view know the score, there will not be a double bottom next year but a brand new low. Even being proven wrong at every turn the data hogs will still hold the shaken confidence of the brokers, bureaucrats, and masses because, hey, they have numbers to back them up. Hey, hey, hey! Good, bad, or indifferent they have numbers. Now that we have created a mechanical model for the economy we will never shake it off, at least for another 4 years, when things get to the point that everyone is desperate for an alternative (Austrian) economic model. Too late, sorry...even Keynes is rolling over in his grave, having justified unlimited government debt and involvement in the name of "pump priming". His theory stated that the good times will run budget surpluses to reduce the debt (but he had to know in his own mind the foolishness of that postulate). After Keynes came the "just a little inflation" economists, goosing the monetary base. Then came Greenspan with the eternal now interest rate (negative real rates forever). Finally, we have Bernanke, the devil's apprentice (inventing new ways to heat hell to the boiling point). He has made QE gadgets the worldwide norm. How will the central banks ever get rid of the garbage on their balance sheets?
We have created an asylum, where the patients have infected the doctors to convince the patients that outside the building are the crazy people. The original patients were the depression-scarred voters and the asylum slowly became the Bedlam of today.
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