I've been waiting for this correction to complete since Thursday morning. Looking at the I1 chart there is not much time until the bottom arrives (4 trading sessions). Currently only 2% SDS. I'll wait for any decline from here (SP futures < 1069) to signal the short. However, it was an extremely quiet market today, so it could be set for the pop upward I have been waiting for.
My old buddy, the DJI 5-minute, 380-unit M/A is closing in on the top of the triangle and should reach it around noon tomorrow. Thus, if the market is not rallying strongly by noon I will short the market and will look for a weak rally touching this M/A to be my cue.
Steve,
ReplyDeletePreviously, you mentioned how the day before July 4 is such a positive day that you would close up bear shop before then. Is. That still your plan ?
Charles
ps what does the market being closed on July 5 do to the strategy?
If, by the close of 7/2 the DJI is below 9750 then I'll hold through the 6th. The normal behavior is to extend the signal through a holiday if the turn date is on a holiday session. If the DJI is approaching 9800 on the 2nd then I'll use that as my cue. But I have a week to determine the state of the market at that time, rather than thinking too far ahead. I investigated the seasonal further and it is not as strong as I had indicated so I'm comfortable holding short through the holiday if support is truly broken.
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