Tuesday, March 22, 2011

3/22 Daily Commentary

A ho-hum day for stocks and almost everything else.  I'm not going long into the I1 peak Friday.  The Euro has one more high, nominally higher than it's high Nov. 4, before it's count is complete for Primary 2.  I like the new high scenario because it finally destroys the dollar bulls.

I1 peaks on Friday and the DJ critical M/A is in buy mode.  I will be in sell mode starting Thursday on a break of the SP futures 30-minute M/A.  Absent this event I will sell at or near the close Friday.  Bonds and the dollar revolve around the stock peak. 
My count on SPX and DJI is wave iv of (iii) still in progress.  This count will be invalidated on YM (DJ) futures declining below 11,850 or DJ cash below 11,925.

I'm working on software and research tonight and do not intend positions prior to the I1 peak.  In addition, I consider the bond market to be manipulated and want to avoid it after the first week of April.  The Fed will probably keep buying through June but when they stop I expect softness.

1 comment:

  1. Steve,
    I agree: one more high for the Euro probably on thursday. That would align a daily with the current weekly sell signal.