Thursday, March 31, 2011

3/31 9:25

I got charts!  The above is a sub-component of I1 and I use it to confirm a trading cycle.  You can see that Japan caused a market decline during an up-cycle but did not invert it (the market bottom did not correspond with a cycle top).  This cycle has 3 trading days to bottom.
Next is I1 itself.

The next chart sets up the intermediate-term horizon.  CRB industrial spot on a 24-month smoothed rate of change. This is what Fed economists and foreign central banks are really concerned about.  They know that industrials precede PPI and CPI.  By the way, contrary to popular belief, the stock market hates inflation when it is accelerating toward an upper bound.

1 comment:

  1. Steve:
    Do you mean after 3 days, the I1 will be up again? Can you give the I1 cycle date again?