However, they say that wave 2 ended at today's high. My view is that wave 2 either has ended or will extend through this week. I shorted the market near the top of the wave c 5-wave (assuming either wave 2 ended or the 5-wave was the 1st of 5) and got flat near the close when SPX hit it's 15-minute, 54-unit M/A:
I1 is up through next Monday, so I don't want to casually take a short position. Fighting I1 is an invitation to the poorhouse. On the other hand, true bear markets are driven by uncontrolled debt liquidation. In other words unwinding asset price spirals or fear of debt repudiation are the meat of the bears. The stock market will tip it's hand for the initial phase by breaking it's SP futures 30-minute M/A -.5% on a 30-minute close. Currently the M/A is 1090, so a 30-minute close below 1084 will be my intial short point where I renew my long-term short trade.
Beyond this is the "critical resistance" M/A, the DJI 5-minute, 380-unit M/A -1.25%. Currently it is 10,142 and ascending so at the open the critical level is about 10,000 even. Breaking 10,000 by 30 points will bring the second round of shorting.
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