Wednesday, March 9, 2011

3/9 2:50

I read EWI's Theorist and their Short Term Update.  Every advisor has a bias.
That's why I've been developing these sentiment gauges for the other markets. We should look to other viewpoints but I am developing a hard core bias toward my own tools. From what I've seen the vast majority of advisors slinging advice fall into 1 of 3 camps:
1) Perma-bulls recommending individual stocks (speculative or not).  They fade away in bear markets.
2) Trend followers.  Half of the time the market is in non-trending mode, unless they follow longer-term trends in which case they fade away in bear markets.
3) Balanced portfolios.  They fade away in bear markets.
So I like advisories that are none of the above, but use forecasting.  The best forecasters are adaptive, using market feedback to modify an on-going forward-looking view of the markets.  EWI fits this definition but Elliott wave theory opens many possible outcomes that can only be resolved by subsequent market activity (sometimes a long time and price adverse outcome).  With I1 and the other (evolving) forward sentiment gauges for bonds, precious metals, and currencies I am able to re-align the probabilities of waves well before EWI can shuffle them. 
At this time I1 indicates a triangle wave count with upward resolution for the stock market.

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